A tool for thought
Pandemic forecasts must be used to induce changes and avoid worst-case scenarios
A committee of experts — well-regarded mathematicians and infectious disease experts — appointed by the Department of Science and Technology to use mathematical modelling and forecast the course of the pandemic has brought good tidings. By their estimate, India passed its COVID-19 peak in September and the decline in the overall caseload being observed for nearly a month now is to continue. Active cases, about 7.5 lakh now, are expected to drop below 50,000 by December, and by February, the pandemic is likely to extinguish itself with only ‘minimal’ (not zero) infections.
While it is reasonable to assume that the seven-member committee has been scrupulous, the caveat is that this is still a forecast based on mathematical modelling. There are some strong assumptions. The decline will continue only if there are no major mutations during winter, protective antibodies are durable, and current restrictions are maintained. There would be no significant gains from a strict lockdown beyond the district level, and current containment measures would suffice, except if there are local outbreaks that threaten to overwhelm health-care facilities there.
Their calculation also showed a peak by July latest, with anything from six to 15 times the existing infections had there been no lockdown or if it had been delayed to April.
The purpose of pandemic modelling is to generate a probabilistic overview of the future and mathematical modelling has become a popular, creative exercise, with several models and forecasts being made available on pre-print servers and pending peer-review. The latest model is expected to be published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research this week, but it appears to be a quotidian exercise.The datasets it has relied on are publicly available and the modelling employs a category of models called SEIR that estimates, within a population, those Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered. It is extremely dependent on the quality of data that is used as an input and relies as much on simplifying assumptions that sacrifice complexity for comprehension but there is nothing to suggest, from what is known about the exercise, that it is more likely to be true than similar estimates from scores of models the world over that subscribe to a certain degree of rigour. Experts associated with the pandemic have reiterated many times that mathematical modelling ought not to be taken literally.The latest assessment too should then be used not to critique or justify past decisions but dwell more on the future. For instance, if the model suggests that the pandemic would extinguish by February with a dramatic dip by December, then should the accelerated clinical trials of potential vaccines be top priority? Mathematical models, to be useful, must induce policy or behavioural change to avoid their own worst-case scenarios and this latest assessment must be seen — no more, no less — as a tool to this end.
- forecast (noun) –पूर्वानुमान- prediction, indication, projection, prognosis, speculation, calculation/estimate (of future events or trends).
- induce (verb) – प्रेरित करना-cause, produce, effect, bring about.
- worst-case scenario (noun) – the most serious or severe possible thing (environment, circumstances or outcome) that could happen in any given situation.
- well-regarded (adjective) – well-respected, well-esteemed, well-acclaimed.
- infectious (adjective) – communicable, transmittable, spreadable.
- modelling (noun) – the modelling of infectious diseases is a tool that has been used to study the mechanisms by which diseases spread, to predict the future course of an outbreak and to evaluate strategies to control an epidemic.
- forecast (verb) – predict, foresee, estimate, foretell.
- course (noun) – progression, development, progress, furtherance.
- tidings (noun) –ख़बर- news, report, announcement, information.
- caseload (noun) – the number of cases to be handled by a doctor at one time.
- drop (verb) – decrease, lessen, reduce.
- extinguish (verb) – eradicate, eliminate, wipe out, remove, put an end to.
- scrupulous (adjective) –ईमानदार-- careful, diligent, attentive; honest, high-minded, righteous.
- caveat (noun) – चेतावनी--warning, caution, condition.
- assumption (noun) – belief, supposition, expectation, speculation, conjecture.
- mutation (noun) – दाखिलखारिज, नाम परिवर्तन, स्थितिभेद-a significant and basic “alteration” in the DNA sequence.
- antibody (noun) – it is also called ‘immunoglobulin’; a protective protein produced mainly by plasma (blood) cells in the immune system in response to the presence of antigens (disease causing organisms (bacteria & viruses) and other harmful/toxic foreign substances like insect venom).
- durable (adjective) – able to withstand, strong, resistant; lasting, enduring, persisting.
- lockdown (noun) – an emergency protocol implemented by the authorities that prevents people from leaving from a place; An extended state of confinement/encirclement/isolation of a person by the authority.
- containment (noun) – an act of keeping something (harmful) under control (it means quickly identifying cases of coronavirus through testing, placing infected individuals in isolation, tracking who infected persons might have been in contact with and potentially quarantining those who came into contact with infection so that the disease doesn’t continue to spread).
- suffice (verb) – be enough, be sufficient, be adequate.
- outbreak (noun) – outburst, flaring up, breakout, sudden appearance/occurrence of something.
- overwhelm (verb) – engulf, swamp, overrun, overpower/inundate; overburden, beset.
- probabilistic (adjective) – based on a theory of probability (chance, probable event, possibility).
- pre-print (noun) – a full draft of a research paper that is shared publicly before it has been peer reviewed/has been sent to press for publication.
- peer-review (noun) – a process by which something research or publication is evaluated by a group of experts in the appropriate field.
- quotidian (adjective) – ordinary, common, normal, everyday, mundane.
- rely on (phrasal verb) – depend on; resort to, have recourse to.
- Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered (SEIR) Model (noun) – it is a category of models which estimates, within a population, those Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered and simplifies the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases.
- comprehension (noun) – understanding, apprehension, knowledge/awareness.
- scores of (noun) – a lot, a large number, great quantities.
- subscribe to (verb) – agree with, be in agreement with, support/endorse.
- rigour (noun) – attention to detail, diligence, accuracy/precision.
- reiterate (verb) – repeat, say again, restate.
- ought (not) to (modal verb) – must (not), should (not).
- literally (adverb) – exactly; verbatim, word for word, line for line.
- critique (verb) – evaluate, assess/analyse, explore, investigate; deal with, handle.
- dwell on (phrasal verb) – (of one’s attention) linger over, think about, mull over.
- for instance (phrase) – as an example.
- dip (noun) – decrease, fall/drop, reduction.
- accelerated (adjective) – hastened, expedited, quickened.
- clinical trial (noun) – a type of research that studies new tests and treatments and evaluates their effects on human health outcomes.
- potential (adjective) – possible, likely, probable.
- vaccine (noun) – a biological preparation that improves immunity to a particular disease.
- behavioural change (noun) – (in public health) it refers to efforts put in place to change people’s personal habits and attitudes, to prevent disease.
- to this end (phrase) – in order to achieve a particular goal/aim (mentioned previ
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ARTICLE-2
The NEET challenge
As NEET progresses, States must take affirmative action to protect weaker sections
In a year when merely executing the norm becomes, an achievement, the conduct of two rounds of
NEET, attendance at the test and the publication of results, all in the face of resistance from certain States, can presumably count as achievements. The results were declared last week, and the top score was a per- fect 720, scored not by one, but two students, who will have their choice of college in the undergraduate med-ical programme. The decision to conduct the exam, when there was uncertainty about the ability of stu-dents to reach the centres, was probably bold, though it had not factored in the lowest common denominator. But then, the NEET is not about catering to the lowest common denominator, it is avowedly about standardis- ing medical education, ensuring the quality of medical
graduates who will hopefully go on to serve society. Working with the ideal of raising the quality is clearly alaborious, timeconsuming process, and is bound to be uneven at the start, even if all States have begun to level the playing field. Different States have been allowed to offer their own education systems — different streams with varying standards and pedagogies — and NEET brings in an overarching single syllabus not all have ac-cess to. Therein begin the inequities. Students in cer-tain circumstances, (poor, living in remote areas and disadvantaged, for instance), and in certain boards of education (State board, for instance) will remain at a disadvantage, as a result of this.Even as scores show an overall improvement over the years, States must not rest in their endeavour to ease the access to, and enhance students’ ability to clear the test successfully, even without the need to spend much on coaching classes. Certain measures, in-cluding Tamil Nadu’s move to reserve 7.5% of MBBS seats for State government school students who clear NEET, running Statesponsored, free or heavily subsi-dised coaching programmes, and a reassessment of the regional State syllabus, will all enable a more equitable scenario. If coaching can help bridge the yawning gap,then the State could mandate that private coaching centres do not charge exorbitantly for conducting year-long coaching programmes and even provide reasona-ble subsidies for certain groups of students. Meanwhile,the overemphasis by parents on medicine as the only career option for their wards, and wanton politicisation of NEET will merely serve to exacerbate the acute deficiencies of the process. Pandemicrelated challenges notwithstanding, for true positive impact, any welfare state must build systems around the core ideas of equity of access and aff ordability — especially in education and health care.
paradoxes--
rigging
fabricate
Outlier
quash
dismay
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