Editorial - 1
After reporting over 97,650 novel coronavirus cases on September 11, the largest number ever reported on a single day by any country till then (the U.S. registered 99,780 cases on October 30), India has been witnessing a steady fall in daily fresh cases reported since mid-September. Since October 25, there have been fewer than 50,000 new cases every day, except on one. More importantly, the reduction in daily cases has continued despite no appreciable drop in overall testing numbers, a trend quite pronounced in States that bore the brunt of the pandemic — Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. It is quite clear that the pandemic has peaked by spreading through the major densely populated cities, leaving lakhs infected and thousands dead, but there is a definite slowing down in these areas. Since August, cases had already started to pile up beyond urban areas in rural districts. It is unclear whether the drop in daily cases and deaths registered in the urban areas is playing itself out similarly in rural areas as well, as unlike urban areas, the protocols for testing, treatment, isolation are not as diligently followed because of gaps in the rural health infrastructure across States. This is something State Health Departments need to follow up on.There is evidence from other disease surveillance in the past that States with better primary health and sentinel infrastructure across topographies, urban or rural, have recorded diseases better. For example, the reporting of HIV cases in Maharashtra and the southern States resulted in the recording of more cases while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and a few other north Indian States reported fewer cases. The absence of evidence is, after all, not the evidence of absence and Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and others must not become complacent about the drop in cases, and must continue to increase their respective testing rates to keep pace with the rest of India. While peaking and a reduction in cases is a good sign that could ease the strain on the health infrastructure, the danger the virus poses is still real. The dip in cases may turn out to be just a statistical blip, with a second surge and heightened spread waiting to happen in the winter, particularly as people partake in the festive season. States have started to ease restrictions on schooling, commercial activities and have even allowed theatres and malls to open to spur the consumption economy severely affected by the lockdowns. The easing was unavoidable as the economic strain was becoming as much of a problem for people as COVID-19 was to their health. Citizens must not get complacent about the drop in cases and should continue to observe norms of social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene till vaccines made available prove their efficacy.
- trajectory (noun) – track, direction, course.प्रक्षेप पथ
- downward (adjective) – descending, sliding, falling.नीचे
- room (noun) – scope, opportunity, chance (for something to happen).
- complacency (noun) –शालीनता- carelessness, laziness, laxity, satisfaction; self-satisfaction, self-approval, smugness (excessive pride in oneself).
- novel coronavirus (nCoV) (noun) – a new strain (type/variety) coronavirus that has not been previously identified in humans. (Courtesy: WHO)
- witness (verb) – see, observe, view, notice.
- fall (noun) – decline, decrease, drop, dip, reduction.
- appreciable (adjective) – considerable, substantial, significant, reasonable.
- quite (adverb) – completely, fully, entirely, obviously.
- pronounced (adjective) – noticeable, distinct, strong, conspicuous, striking.
- bear the brunt (phrase) – to suffer or endure the worst part of something (force/burden/pressure) when a very bad or unpleasant thing happens.
- pandemic (noun) – the worldwide spread of a new disease; The illness spreads around the world and typically affects a large number of people across a wide area.
- definite (adjective) – clear, certain, marked, distinct, unequivocal, unambiguous.
- slowing down (noun) – reduction, decrease, decline.
- pile up (phrasal verb) – increase, raise in quantity.ढेर लगाना
- play out (phrasal verb) – happen, occur, take place.
- protocol (noun) – procedure, method, rules of conduct.
- isolation (noun) – a complete separation from others of a person known or reasonably believed to be infected with communicable diseases.
- diligently (adverb) – carefully, attentively, thoroughly.लगन से
- follow up (phrasal verb) – continue/carry on something further.
- disease surveillance (noun) – the ongoing systematic collection and analysis of data and the provision of information which leads to action being taken to prevent and control a disease, usually one of an infectious nature.
- primary health (care) (noun) – it is a whole-of-society approach to health and well-being centred on the needs and preferences of individuals, families and communities. It addresses the broader determinants of health and focuses on the comprehensive and interrelated aspects of physical, mental and social health and well being. (Courtesy: WHO)
- sentinel surveillance (noun) – a sentinel surveillance system is used when high-quality data are needed about a particular disease. A sentinel system deliberately involves only a limited network of carefully selected reporting sites with good laboratory facilities and experienced well-qualified staff, to identify and notify on certain diseases. Because sentinel surveillance is expensive and time-taking, conducted only in selected locations, however, it may not be as effective for detecting rare diseases or diseases that occur outside the catchment areas of the sentinel sites. (Courtesy: WHO)
- topography (noun) – countryside, surroundings, environment.स्थलाकृति
- after all (phrase) – most importantly, above all, ultimately, essentially.
- complacent (adjective) – careless, casual, unconcerned, uninterested, apathetic, perfunctory; smug, self-satisfied, pleased/proud of oneself, self-opinionated, satisfied, pleased, contented.आत्मसंतुष्ट
- keep pace with (phrase) – progress at the same speed as.
- strain (noun) – pressure, demands, burdens; stress, tension.
- pose (verb) – raise, ask, put (a question/matter for consideration).
- dip (noun) – decrease, fall/drop, reduction.डुबोना
- turn out (phrasal verb) – transpire, emerge; happen.
- blip (noun) – a small/very short & temporary deviation (from normality/trend).
- surge (noun) – sudden increase, rise.
- heightened (adjective) – increased, intensified, worsen, aggravated.बढ़ाना
- partake (verb) – participate, take part/join, engage.हिस्सा लेना
- spur (verb) – motivate, stimulate, encourage, urge, galvanize.
- consumption (noun) – the use of goods and services by households.
- lockdown (noun) – an emergency protocol implemented by the authorities that prevents people from leaving from a place; An extended state of confinement/encirclement/isolation of a person by the authority.
- observe (verb) – comply with, abide by, obey, adhere to, conform to.
- norm (noun) – standard, convention, regulation.
- social/physical distancing (noun) – a term means actively avoiding crowded public places, is a key element in decreasing the rapid spread of COVID-19. This is an effort intended to limit exposure by reducing face-to-face contact and preventing spread among people in community settings.
- hygiene (noun) – cleanliness.
- vaccine (noun) – a biological preparation that improves immunity to a particular disease.
- efficacy (noun) – effectiveness, efficiency, power/ability to give estimated results.
A fierce contest: On U.S. election results
With less than two days until voting ends in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the results of opinion polls gauging voter preferences between the Republican incumbent, President Donald Trump, and his Democratic challenger, former Vice-President Joe Biden, almost uniformly show that the latter is holding onto a firm lead. A leading poll of polls puts Mr. Biden ahead by a solid 7.8%. A well-regarded data-driven website running statistical models on polls simulated 40,000 possible outcomes to find that Mr. Biden won 90 times out of 100. However, an analysis of politics since January 2017 reveals how voters might regard Mr. Trump’s performance, disregarding what they may have said in response to opinion surveys. He came to power on what was essentially a nativist call to purportedly put “America First”, to fight for the middle-class workers losing jobs to foreigners or immigrants. The divisive rhetoric that his 2016 campaign employed to this end continued to yield rich political dividends for him until early 2020. However, all this changed with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, an epidemiological challenge that the White House was unable to meet.
This was part bungling, the result of a chaotic executive decision-making, and part apathy, borne of Mr. Trump’s disdain of masks, social distancing and lockdowns. Even in this approach, however unscientific, he may have won voter sympathy, perhaps because some appreciated his desire to reopen the economy, regardless of COVID-19. It is this sentiment that might prove to be Mr. Biden’s undoing as vote tallying comes to a close in the days and weeks, ahead. Therein lies a major force likely to shape the denouement of this election: the pandemic has resulted in a massive shift in the balance of voting methods toward early voting, mail-in voting and absentee voting. Mr. Trump has attacked mail-in voting with factually unfounded claims regarding potential for fraud and a Democratic conspiracy. Given that well over 90 million votes have been cast already through the latter channels, and that far more Republicans and Trump supporters are likely to vote in-person on November 3, the early results will likely show a significant lead for Mr. Trump. If, as is likely, the scales start tipping toward Mr. Biden as the mail-in votes are tallied, the stage will be set for Mr. Trump to formally allege voting fraud and escalate the matter to the Supreme Court — a Court that did not hesitate to rule on the 2000 election favouring Republican George W. Bush. Given that the Republican-controlled Senate recently rushed to fill an empty seat on the Court with conservative judge Amy Coney Barrett, the 6-3 majority on the Court favouring conservatives may well have a bearing in such an eventuality. Only a strong performance by Mr. Biden on election day to add to the early-voting leads will obviate this possibility.
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